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"The fishermen know that the sea is dangerous and the storm terrible, but they have never found these dangers sufficient reason for remaining ashore."
— Van Gogh
If early indicators are to be believed and depending on media credibility, we may have well gotten past the worst of the recessionary storm. Economists and the general public feared the worst if the US slipped into a depression. Fortunately we have learned a lot from Hoover’s "deer in the headlights" response to something similar in the late 1920’s to know that measures need to be taken to forestall a depression redux from happening. We had cash for clunkers, home improvement tax rebates and others to keep the US economic engine humming. Kudos to Bernanke and to the Obama Administration then! Let’s not deceive ourselves though. Our treasury is depleted. And more needs to be done.
Although there are reports that there is noticeable growth in resilient, stable areas of the US and that there is some bit of good news for the real estate market. Inventory of homes for sale is down again to about 3 months worth in some areas depleting a year and a half worth of inventory after buyers shied away from the market in the early part of 2009. Buyers, it seems, are now actively on the hunt again. Though far from being a general trend, it seems that the time for multiple offers on homes is once again in sight to the delight of home sellers in a few, stable markets. First time buyers with hefty down payments and investors who have been waiting in the wings for a scenario such as this, are coming out of the woodwork and sticking their necks out.
It may be a little too soon. Conservatives predict a second and even a third wave of foreclosures within the next 2 years, if the unemployment rates do not improve. It took about a decade to recover from the last mild recession. If history repeats itself and barring unforeseen circumstances, it may take a bit longer than a decade for this one. Of course, your guess is as good as mine.
The Dow Jones Industrials are showing signs of a slight uptick, despite the daily ebb and flow of gains and losses, still driven by greed and fear (what else is new?), and hovering on the 10,000 mark after its precipitous fall in the recent past, amid the greatest, harrowing financial scandals and con jobs of all time in Wall Street. Remember Madoff and his ilk? Nearly everyone who had any dollar invested in Wall Street lost big with retirees and small investors seeing their next eggs disappear in a cloud of smoke. The greatest challenge for Wall Street these days is not financial in nature. It is the absence of soul. The same is true for capitalism. Its failure stares us all in the face.
The reality on the ground is much different though. The employment picture is still bleak with more than 10% of the American work force unemployed. Federal, state and city as well as private sector budget cuts are still coming and are already marrow deep. Mandated furloughs are cutting deeply into incomes. Workers who get to keep their jobs after massive corporate layoffs, do not know whether to rejoice because they get to keep their jobs or cry in depair since now they get to do the work of those who were asked to leave, maybe 2 to 3 people’s jobs, at less pay. Welcome to Stressville! A sword seems to hang over one’s head as you wait for the next round of layoffs. There was a time when companies kept you and valued you for your loyalty and contribution. Now, soulless corporate greed dictates that they ax their older employees to save on pension costs and hire new graduates instead for smaller pay, all in the name of profit.
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3.26 Copyright (C) 2008 Compojoom.com / Copyright (C) 2007 Alain Georgette / Copyright (C) 2006 Frantisek Hliva. All rights reserved."
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