MANILA - Tropical Storm Ramil (international codename: Lupit) intensified into a typhoon overnight and weathermen said Saturday they would know by Sunday or Monday if it will continue to threaten North and Central Luzon or veer north toward Taiwan.
Weather forecaster Robert Sawi of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said a high-pressure area near Taiwan could spell the difference.
He said if the high-pressure area stays at its current position, it might allow “Ramil” to move north and spare northern Luzon. But if the high-pressure area moves west, it could pull “Ramil” smack into northern Luzon.
“We will see in the next 48 hours what will happen,” Sawi told the Inquirer.
He also noted that “Ramil” was moving slowly, almost stationary, as if deciding where to go. “In my experience, once a system slows down, there is a chance it would change direction and we would be spared.”
But Sawi’s boss, Pagasa Director Prisco Nilo, was less optimistic.
In a briefing at the National Disaster Coordinating Council in Camp Aguinaldo on Saturday, Nilo told reporters that, based on the models they have seen, there was only a 20 percent chance “Ramil” would head north, and an 80 percent chance it would head for Northern Luzon.
“The unanimous forecast is that it would head for Northern Luzon. But there is a chance it could spare Luzon and head for Taiwan,” he said.
Nilo added that they expect that by Monday, the system will stick close to Northern Luzon. By Tuesday, Luzon will feel the effects of the typhoon.
Unless it changes course, Ramil was expected to make landfall Wednesday afternoon somewhere in Cagayan.
As of 4:00 p.m. Saturday, Nilo said, “Ramil” was located 750 kilometers east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora, with maximum winds of 140 kilometers per hour and gustiness of 170 kilometers per hour.
It was moving west northwest at 13 kilometers per hour.
Nilo said scattered rain showers and thunderstorms could be expected over Southern Luzon and the Visayas for the next three days due to an intertropical convergence zone. Nilo said the seas in these areas will be moderate to rough and he advised seacraft against venturing into the sea.
Nilo said rainfall of as much as 70 millimeters per hour could be expected for 12 hours once “Ramil” hits land.
Sawi said there was the possibility “Ramil” would develop into a super typhoon with maximum winds reaching 215 kilometers per hour or more since it was still out at sea.
Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, chairman of the National Disaster Coordination Council, said Saturday the authorities were already in the process of “pre-positioning” relief goods in areas that are likely to be hit by “Ramil.”
He identified some of these as Pangasinan, La Union, the Ilocos provinces, Batanes, Tuguegarao, Cagayan and Baguio City.
He also said the government was concentrating its “air assets” in the Cordillera region, specifically in nine isolated areas in Mountain Province and Bengeuet.
Teodoro said the NDCC’s regional offices have been alerted to prepare for a preemptive evacuation in areas likely to be hit by the storm such as Northern and Eastern Luzon and the Cordilleras.
“We have to plan for the worst-case scenario,” he said.
Teodoro also advised the NDCC office in the National Capital Region to prepare for the coming of “Ramil” by consolidating assets like rubber boats.
On the dams in Northern Luzon, he said the NDCC would ask dam officials to “release more water right now but in close verbal consultation with local government officials.” He said he would not accept communication merely through text messages.
As of 6:00 p.m. Saturday, the Angat, Ipo, Ambuklao, Binga, San Roque, Pantabangan and Magat dams continued to release water into their respective river systems. Only the San Roque dam in Pangasinan had water above its spilling level of 280 meters above sea level. The dam’s water level was at 282.65 meters.
The other dams had water below the spilling level, but it was nonetheless close to it. The spilling level is the level at which dams must release water to prevent a break.
Nilo said he would consult with his Hydrometeorological Division and see if they could release 1,500 cubic meters per second from the San Roque dam, which was releasing 765 cubic meters per second.
Teodoro said he would ask officials of the United Nations if they could extend their “flash appeal” for international humanitarian aid to those affected by Typhoon “Pepeng.” The appeal initially covered only Ondoy.
Pagasa’s dam status report as of 10 a.m. Saturday said Angat dam in Bulacan was near its spilling level of 212 meters at 211.94 meters. Ipo dam, also in Bulacan, was at 100.72 meters, near its spilling level at 100.87.
Ambuklao dam in Benguet was at 744.01 meters, well below its 752-meter spilling level. Binga dam, also in Benguet, was at 571.10 meters, below its 575-meter spilling level.
San Roque dam in Pangasinan was still above its spilling level of 280 meters at 283.35 meters and continued to discharge excess water..
Pantabangan dam in Nueva Ecija was close to its spilling level of 221 meters at 219.81 meters.
Magat dam in Isabela was at 191.37 meters, close to the 193-meter spilling level.
Pagasa said Angat had two gates discharging water at 518 cubic meters per second; Ipo had four gates discharging water at 412 cubic meters per second; Ambuklao had three gates discharging water at 127 cubic meters per second; Binga had two gates discharging water at 304 cubic meters per second; San Roque had two gates discharging water at 620 cubic meters per second; Pantabangan had one gate discharging water at 220 cubic meters per second; and Magat had two gates open discharging water at 980 cubic meters per second.
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